The Current State of Autonomous Driving in Japan and Outlook Beyond 2030
--A Comprehensive Analysis of Commercial and Passenger Vehicles, Industrial Structure, and Social Impact-
The Japanese government has set a goal of deploying 10,000 Level 4 autonomous commercial vehicles by fiscal year 2030. This is an important initiative to address social issues such as the growing driver shortage, maintaining logistics infrastructure, and ensuring local transportation. While fewer than 1,000 vehicles are expected to be deployed by fiscal year 2027, a plan has been put in place to rapidly promote deployment from that point toward fiscal year 2030. Support measures for local governments and development companies are also expected to be strengthened, accelerating policies toward the societal implementation of autonomous driving.
Overseas, the United States and China have progressed from the demonstration phase to the commercial phase, and in China, autonomous taxis are already operating in several cities. Japan has taken a cautious approach, but advances in policy and technological development are expected to significantly expand commercial services over the next five to ten years. Demand for autonomous trucks is particularly likely to increase in the logistics sector, and autonomous buses are expected to play an important role as a regional transportation provider in depopulated areas.
In the passenger car sector, the Honda Legend is currently the only commercially available vehicle with Level 3 technology. Going forward, it is expected that Japanese manufacturers will gradually add Level 3 technology to their lineup. In five years, Level 3 will be available on multiple vehicle models, and in ten years, it is likely to become widespread, primarily in flagship and luxury models from major manufacturers. However, Level 4 will require significant regulatory and social acceptance, as well as infrastructure development, and widespread adoption in passenger vehicles will require a longer timeframe.
The key factors in determining whether Level 3 or higher autonomous driving will become commonplace in private vehicles will be its compatibility with the living environment and cost. Five years from now, it is expected to be limited to a limited number of high-priced models, expanding to mid-range models in ten years. In 30 years, highly automated driving may become a common option, with autonomous vehicles likely to become a primary means of transportation in urban areas. However, the rate of adoption in rural areas may vary due to differences in road conditions and population density.
In terms of the relationship between autonomous driving and powertrains, EVs are considered to be the most compatible with autonomous driving due to their compatibility with software control. While hybrid vehicles will continue to play a role, the future widespread adoption of autonomous driving is expected to increase the proportion of EVs due to the integration of control and ease of maintenance. Gasoline-powered vehicles will gradually decline in the future, and the industry as a whole will see significant increases in demand in areas such as electrical and software development, sensors, and semiconductors, potentially significantly restructuring the entire automotive industry.
The slow progress of autonomous driving in Japan is due to factors such as high societal demand for safety, complex road environments, cautious legal system development, and infrastructure disparities between rural and urban areas. Additionally, clarifying the scope of responsibility in the event of an accident, improving communication infrastructure, and establishing a system for continuous data collection and improvement are also essential. Progress in autonomous driving could help alleviate labor shortages in the logistics and transportation sectors, but replacing everything with autonomous driving is difficult. Therefore, autonomous driving will likely play a complementary role in specific areas, particularly long-distance transportation and nighttime delivery.
The benefits of introducing autonomous driving include fewer traffic accidents, improved logistics efficiency, maintaining regional transportation, and expanding mobility opportunities for people with mobility restrictions. On the other hand, there are also anticipated disadvantages, such as risks in the event of system malfunction, cybersecurity issues, changes to employment in driving-related occupations, and disparities in adoption due to high costs. Given these factors, the introduction of autonomous driving is not just a technical challenge; it is a theme that will have an impact on the entire social structure, making gradual and sustained efforts essential.
Japan's autonomous driving market is expected to expand steadily in the future, backed by policy support and technological innovation. As adoption progresses from the commercial sector and spreads to passenger cars, the automotive industry is predicted to shift from being centered on hardware to being a multi-disciplinary industry that includes software and services. Advances in autonomous driving are expected to contribute to resolving social issues while shaping a new direction for Japan's mobility industry.
The Japanese government has set a goal of deploying 10,000 Level 4 autonomous commercial vehicles by fiscal year 2030. This is an important initiative to address social issues such as the growing driver shortage, maintaining logistics infrastructure, and ensuring local transportation. While fewer than 1,000 vehicles are expected to be deployed by fiscal year 2027, a plan has been put in place to rapidly promote deployment from that point toward fiscal year 2030. Support measures for local governments and development companies are also expected to be strengthened, accelerating policies toward the societal implementation of autonomous driving.
Overseas, the United States and China have progressed from the demonstration phase to the commercial phase, and in China, autonomous taxis are already operating in several cities. Japan has taken a cautious approach, but advances in policy and technological development are expected to significantly expand commercial services over the next five to ten years. Demand for autonomous trucks is particularly likely to increase in the logistics sector, and autonomous buses are expected to play an important role as a regional transportation provider in depopulated areas.
In the passenger car sector, the Honda Legend is currently the only commercially available vehicle with Level 3 technology. Going forward, it is expected that Japanese manufacturers will gradually add Level 3 technology to their lineup. In five years, Level 3 will be available on multiple vehicle models, and in ten years, it is likely to become widespread, primarily in flagship and luxury models from major manufacturers. However, Level 4 will require significant regulatory and social acceptance, as well as infrastructure development, and widespread adoption in passenger vehicles will require a longer timeframe.
The key factors in determining whether Level 3 or higher autonomous driving will become commonplace in private vehicles will be its compatibility with the living environment and cost. Five years from now, it is expected to be limited to a limited number of high-priced models, expanding to mid-range models in ten years. In 30 years, highly automated driving may become a common option, with autonomous vehicles likely to become a primary means of transportation in urban areas. However, the rate of adoption in rural areas may vary due to differences in road conditions and population density.
In terms of the relationship between autonomous driving and powertrains, EVs are considered to be the most compatible with autonomous driving due to their compatibility with software control. While hybrid vehicles will continue to play a role, the future widespread adoption of autonomous driving is expected to increase the proportion of EVs due to the integration of control and ease of maintenance. Gasoline-powered vehicles will gradually decline in the future, and the industry as a whole will see significant increases in demand in areas such as electrical and software development, sensors, and semiconductors, potentially significantly restructuring the entire automotive industry.
The slow progress of autonomous driving in Japan is due to factors such as high societal demand for safety, complex road environments, cautious legal system development, and infrastructure disparities between rural and urban areas. Additionally, clarifying the scope of responsibility in the event of an accident, improving communication infrastructure, and establishing a system for continuous data collection and improvement are also essential. Progress in autonomous driving could help alleviate labor shortages in the logistics and transportation sectors, but replacing everything with autonomous driving is difficult. Therefore, autonomous driving will likely play a complementary role in specific areas, particularly long-distance transportation and nighttime delivery.
The benefits of introducing autonomous driving include fewer traffic accidents, improved logistics efficiency, maintaining regional transportation, and expanding mobility opportunities for people with mobility restrictions. On the other hand, there are also anticipated disadvantages, such as risks in the event of system malfunction, cybersecurity issues, changes to employment in driving-related occupations, and disparities in adoption due to high costs. Given these factors, the introduction of autonomous driving is not just a technical challenge; it is a theme that will have an impact on the entire social structure, making gradual and sustained efforts essential.
Japan's autonomous driving market is expected to expand steadily in the future, backed by policy support and technological innovation. As adoption progresses from the commercial sector and spreads to passenger cars, the automotive industry is predicted to shift from being centered on hardware to being a multi-disciplinary industry that includes software and services. Advances in autonomous driving are expected to contribute to resolving social issues while shaping a new direction for Japan's mobility industry.
